Dear Friends, that's quite a cool environmental slogan, isn't it? Apologies if it didn't excite you too much, but I'm simply trying to make a point. Yes, here I go, ranting about the impact that our actions are having on the planet. To be honest, I'm not really qualified to rant at you, because that would be a)rather hypocritical and b)not very useful in the long-run. So, I've decided to approach it another way. I am going to educate myself, alongside you, about the dangers that the planet is facing. Therefore this way, I can see where I should improve my lifestyle and you can rethink certain aspects of your lifestyle as well. Sound like a good plan? I think so.
So, what is it that we already know about the planet?
We know that it's resources are rapidly dwindling due to over-consumption. We know that the world population is increasing at an uncontrollable rate, putting even more pressure on the weakening supply and demand system. We know that the commercialisation and industrialisation of countries around the world is a contributory factor to various levels of environmental degradation (i.e. air pollution and soil contamination). We appreciate that the world is experiencing the effects of climate change and its partner in crime... global warming. We also agree that deforestation and forest degradation are resulting in increased emissions of carbon dioxide, enhancing the greenhouse effects. The further results of which can lead to global warming. We are learning all too soon, that deforestation comes at a heavy price and that an increase in deforestation is inversely proportional to the level of biodiversity within this particular ecosystem. What else do we know? I suppose the list goes on and on... It's rather pessimistic, but it's important for us to understand that the burden we are putting on the earth is far too heavy.
So, what don't we know about the ever-changing planet? (I apologise to those readers who are already aware of the things that I am about to say...)
So, what is it that we already know about the planet?
We know that it's resources are rapidly dwindling due to over-consumption. We know that the world population is increasing at an uncontrollable rate, putting even more pressure on the weakening supply and demand system. We know that the commercialisation and industrialisation of countries around the world is a contributory factor to various levels of environmental degradation (i.e. air pollution and soil contamination). We appreciate that the world is experiencing the effects of climate change and its partner in crime... global warming. We also agree that deforestation and forest degradation are resulting in increased emissions of carbon dioxide, enhancing the greenhouse effects. The further results of which can lead to global warming. We are learning all too soon, that deforestation comes at a heavy price and that an increase in deforestation is inversely proportional to the level of biodiversity within this particular ecosystem. What else do we know? I suppose the list goes on and on... It's rather pessimistic, but it's important for us to understand that the burden we are putting on the earth is far too heavy.
So, what don't we know about the ever-changing planet? (I apologise to those readers who are already aware of the things that I am about to say...)
- We can't definitively say by how much Earth will warm over the coming years... unless, we know how much more greenhouse gases will end up in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, the biggest uncertainty is human... as it always is. Hypothetically speaking, if we were to completely cut our carbon dioxide emissions tomorrow, the current atmospheric levels won't exceed 400 parts per million. Sadly, the probability of such a drastic change is practically impossible. A huge part of the problem is that the biggest emitters, China and the USA (sorry to name and shame) aren't adequately partaking in global attempts to cut down on greenhouse gas emissions. But, even the countries that have made a promise are undermining the progress they've made by building new coal-fired power stations. What is the sense in that? Despite the effort of many organisations, the current 'emission trajectory' is close to the worst-case scenario depicted by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). So, by 2100, we should look forward to carbon dioxide levels reaching approximately 1000ppm.
- How great are our cooling effects? Pollutants that form the minuscule aerosol droplets in the atmosphere, have far greater effects than one can apprehend. The amount of radiation that is reflected by sulphur dioxide aerosols varies according to the size of the droplets, their height in the atmosphere, the time of day (either night or daytime), the season and several other factors. Additionally, aerosols have big effects on clouds. They make the clouds 'brighter' (if that's even possible), resulting in a larger amount of sunlight being reflected back into space. Aerosols, as many of you are probably aware, are fairly short-lived. As a result, they don't have the capacity to spread evenly throughout the atmosphere, as carbon dioxide can. Instead, the pollutants tend to be more concentrated around the area of pollution. There are several complexities that arise from this. Consequently, there is a lot of uncertainty about the "magnitude of the overall cooling from pollutants such as sulphur dioxide"- according to NewScientist. However, not many people emphasise the cooling effect because the warming effect caused by rising carbon dioxide levels is a far more pertinent problem.
- How much hotter are things going to get? So, what'll happen if we double carbon dioxide levels? How will the Earth respond? One way to get an idea of how these complex feedbacks play out in Earth's climate is to use computer models. The other, more trustworthy method, is to look at how changes in carbon dioxide have affected the climate of the past (from the recent past to millions of years ago). Both methods suggest that doubling carbon dioxide levels will increase the average Earth temperature by 2 degrees celsius (at least). However, there are other studies point to a temperature rise of 3 degrees celsius to be the more likely response. This value which relates to how much the average Earth temperature will increase by is known formally as the 'climate sensitivity', and it was adopted recently by the IPCC. Some studies of the past climate, point to sensitivities of 6 degrees celsius or more!
- How will things change in each region? Even with an average global temperature rise of 2 degrees celsius, there will be some pretty dramatic changes. Which regions are going to turn into tropical holiday hotspots? Which places are going to become completely inhospitable? It might be useful to know... for future planning. But, unfortunately, none of us are truly psychic. The broad picture suggests that the tropics will expand and get slightly wetter. The 'dry zones' either side of the tropics will get drier and move towards the poles. Therefore, high latitudes will signify a much warmer and wetter climate. These are all just theories based on fragments of evidence and several climate modellers (as they are called nowadays) say that all this new information may in fact be very misleading. After all, how certain can we be about future predictions?
So, there we have it. Four pointers on things that we don't know about the ever changing world. I will continue this theme into a second blog, because this one is getting far too long. Even I have lost my attention span. I hope you enjoyed reading about some of the things that we are facing in the world. It seems daunting and very unsettling, I know, but it's better to know about these things in advance, before we are suddenly hit in the face with a vastly changed Earth. Be sure to visit the next blog to continue on this ... adventure? (is that the right word, well if not, please insert your own appropriate word). Thanks for reading.
Adios. xxx
Wrote by Kyawijewardena
